Nawaz Sharif Third Time Unlucky

The opposition parties in Pakistan, in a rear display of solidarity, stand united in appealing to Nawaz Sharif to resign as Prime Minister of Pakistan following the findings of the Joint Investigation Team (JIT). The JIT was incorporated by the Supreme Court to probe into the money trail of Sharif family’s offshore businesses revealed by the Panama Papers. Sharif became the Prime Minister of Pakistan for an unprecedented third time following the general elections of 2013, that too with a heavy mandate. One would think that Sharif would have learnt his lessons after being at the helm of affairs in the country for such a long time, but he finds himself on the verge of being ousted from office yet again Sharif, along with his family, found himself in this crisis after his name appeared in the Panama Leaks in 2015. Initially, when the scandal surfaced it seemed as if it will be forgotten like the multiple others involving the Premier over the course of his political career. However, two factors have drastically changed the political milieu, since the last time Sharif was Prime Minister in the 90s: the presence of a genuine opposition in the form of the eccentric Imran Khan’s Movement for Justice Party (PTI), and secondly an independent and emboldened judiciary. Any attempt to fathom the political actions of the radical Khan might be an exercise in futility, but in the context of Panamagate it will be beneficial to dissect his brand of politics and how it has contributed to Sharif’s woes. Khan’s ability to go to any city, small town or village in Pakistan and to attract large crowds on a consistent basis provides him with a platform that his political opponents can only aspire for. Moreover, the media coverage he gets is unparalleled. PTI’s rallies, filled with song and dance, have also become an avenue for entertainment for a country that has been starved of such events due to its precarious law and order situation. Khan can be credited with the dharna, or sit-in, culture. PTI’s dharna protesting the alleged rigging in the 2013 elections, outside the Parliament building in 2014, lasted for more than four months during which Khan lived in a freight container. Although nothing substantial came out as a result of this sit-in, it greatly helped him develop a narrative against Sharif government’s corruption. Panamagate gained traction due to Khan’s relentlessness, and the lack of seriousness demonstrated by Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) in the matter. PML-N’s apathetic approach to the scandal can be partly attributed to the traditional weakness of Pakistan’s highest court of law, and partly to PML-N’s tendency to exert influence, or pressure, on civilian institutions. However, the lawyers’ movement in 2007 clearly emboldened the judiciary as manifested by the ouster of former Prime Minister Yousaf Reza Gillani on contempt of court charges in 2012. The majority decision of the five-member Supreme Court (3-2) in the Panama case in April, while falling short of disqualifying the Prime Minister under Article 184 of the Constitution, did task the JIT, comprising of members of both civilian and military institutions, to investigate the money trail of the Sharif family’s assets and businesses abroad. This was perceived by the ruling party as a victory as nobody could have predicted that the JIT comprising of bureaucrats could dare to question a sitting Prime Minister along with members of his family. Contrary to expectations, the JIT conducted a thorough investigation and submitted a comprehensive report to the Supreme Court. This report has left the government paralyzed, as the PML-N is preoccupied in countering the narrative that has been created against the Sharif family. Moreover, reports of rifts within the PML-N have surfaced as certain elements, within the party disagree with Sharif’s confrontationist approach, most notably the Interior Minister Chaudhary Nisar and Chief Minister of Punjab Shahbaz Sharif. The Supreme Court will resume proceedings of the Panama case this week, and it is largely believed that the JIT findings provide a solid basis for Sharif to be disqualified. Even if more time is required to prove the corruption charges, submitting forged documents and lying under oath provide sufficient grounds for Sharif to be disqualified immediately. A closely related case filed by Sheikh Rasheed, Khan’s ally and leader of Awami Muslim League under article 62 of the Constitution has furthered ensnared Sharif. The case revolves around Nawaz Sharif’s speech on the floor of the National Assembly regarding the money trail of his sons’ Mayfair properties in London. Article 62 is more commonly known as the ‘Sadiq’ and ‘Ameen’ (honest and righteous) clause, as it requires all Members of Parliament to be of good character. It seems as if Sharif seeks political martyrdom as he shows no signs of letting go of the reins of power. He has lost the moral legitimacy to be Prime Minister, and based on the facts put forward by the JIT’s report, it seems very likely that he will lose the legal battle as well. In such a scenario dissolving the National and Provincial Assemblies, and calling early elections might be Sharif’s only saving grace. Already it is reported that a group of PML-N parliamentarians are in talks with PTI to switch parties. Sharif’s position will only deteriorate as time goes by. It is unclear if he would be able to evoke any sympathy amongst his voter base as unlike previous scandals, this one is international in nature and was revealed by a foreign law firm. Also, the military establishment has made it abundantly clear that it intends to remain neutral in this case, and will back the Supreme Court’s decision.